2009-10 Big Ten Preview
The preseason ratings have been released, exhibition games start within the week, and ESPN analysts are starting to tighten their East-coast blinders. Yes, college basketball season is just about here.
It’s been a long time. A long, lonely time. I need more Ralph in my life. More Tubby. More Al and more Lawrence. The Texas Abrams left a bad taste in my mouth, and it’s about time to get it out.
Six Big Ten teams start the season ranked in at least one of the polls, with five in the Top 20 of the USA Today/ESPN poll. That’s a nice change after last year, when the Big Ten could hardly scratch the Top 25, despite sending seven teams to the dance.
So before any team takes the court, I’ll share my Big Ten preview. Here are my projected standings:
1. Purdue
Purdue is very good this year. Very, very good. This seems like a no-doubter to me. They finished 27-10 last year and return almost every player from that team. E’Twaun Moore posted 14-5-3 last year, Robbie Hummel posted 13-7, and JuJuan Johnson is an emerging star on both sides of the ball. Toss in character guys likeChris Kramer and Keaton Grant and you have the best and most balanced line-up in the league.
The Boilermakers also have good depth. Expect a breakout year from Lewis Jackson after his solid freshman campaign, and an immediate impact from Croatian newcomer Sandi Marcius, an athletic big man who fits well into Matt Painter’s motion offense.
Painter is building his name as a premier national coach, and he has a very talented and deep team. It’s hard to spot any weaknesses with Purdue this year, and I think they’ll claim their first Big Ten title since 1996.
2. Minnesota
3. Michigan State
4. Michigan
I can see these three finishing in any order. They are all strong teams. They all return key players from last year. But they all have some potential problems.
The Gophers return almost every player, losing only 18 minutes per game. We also added several impact recruits, including Royce White and athletic freak Rodney Williams. Those two—and guard Justin Cobbs—can step in and contribute.
Our top nine scorers from last season return. Lawrence Westbrook, our only (returning) bona-fide scorer, is entering his senior year, and it could be a monster year. He has games where he looks unstoppable, but needs to bring that type of performance every night. I think he will.
- Lawrence Westbrook’s offense may be the key to the Gophers season.
But this is still a Tubby Smith team; defense will be the primary focus and the biggest strength. Damian Johnson will win the Big Ten defensive player of the year award that he deserved last year, and Al Nolen may be the best defensive guard in the league. Both of those players averaged two steals a game last year, and DJ also averaged two blocks a game. And Ralph Sampson started to emerge as a strong paint presence at the end of last year.
The Gophers do have issues, though. We struggled on the road last season, going 4-6 and losing our last five road games. That trend needs to stop if we want to compete for a Big Ten title. And while we will have a very strong defense, our offense still has question marks. We had only one player average double-figures last season, had trouble shooting consistently, and lack a true inside scoring threat. The additional experience and new recruits should help remedy this, but scoring may still give the Gophers trouble.
On paper, Michigan State looks the strongest of these three teams (and of about any team in the nation, for that matter). Ranked second nationally, the Spartans are expected to make another deep tournament run.
And it’s easy to see why. Kalin Lucas is an elite player, as is Raymar Morgan. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen are also returning scoring threats. You could go on and on about how and why Michigan State will be good this year, but it’s a Michigan State team under Tom Izzo. Of course they will be good. Enough said.
But I’m not completely sold on the Spartans this year. Their frontcourt looks like it could hinder them. Who will replace Goran Suton? Is it Delvon Roe? He’s amazingly talented, but has had a history of injuries. Is the 6-8 forward strong enough to man the block for an entire year? Is it Draymond Green? The sophomore was a top recruit, but at 6-6, 235 it’s unlikely he can take over the paint. A couple of freshman big men will be in the picture: Garrick Sherman andDerrick Nix. Both are big, strong targets, but will they be athletic enough to step in and immediately be effective at the college level? Izzo relies heavily on frontcourt play, but will he have the big men to respond this year?
(You see how many question marks were in that last paragraph? That’s not a good thing.)
Michigan has the best tandem in the league in DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris. Sims scares me; I have nightmares about DeShawn Sims posting 50 on the Gophers. He’s 6-8, has a great post game, and has 3-point range. He creates huge match-up problems for every team. Harris went 17-7-5 last season and should do better in his junior season. Those two can carry a team and win games for the Wolverines.
- My personal boogeyman.
But depth is a concern for Michigan. If either Sims or Harris gets injured or in foul trouble, it’s unlikely that somebody will step up and fill the void. The Wolverines also lack a true point guard, a huge liability with the strong collection of defenses in the Big Ten.
Again, I can see these three finishing in any order behind Purdue. So why the Gophers second?
A large part of it is the homer in me. I admit it. Probably 50 percent of it is motivated by my allegiance to the maroon and gold. I just like to see the Gophers at second in the Big Ten standings. It looks good, even if it is just a preseason prediction.
But, beyond that, I think the Gophers will find the scoring needed to complement our defense. I think Westbrook will have a huge offensive year (16-plus points per). I think Damian will average 13-plus points per game. I think Paul Carterwill have a breakout year and post solid offensive numbers. I think the recruits will step in and contribute immediately. I think Blake Hoffarber and Devoe Joseph will become shooting threats. I think Intensity Ralph will provide scoring from the paint. I think it will all come together for us. The Gophers will find a way to put up enough points to win. Just watch.
Michigan State at third? Yes, Michigan State at third. The Spartans always have a huge target on their chest. They’re the Big Ten team to beat. Every Big Ten team circles them on the schedule, and they’re the biggest road draw. And after their tournament run last year, that target will be even bigger.
And I don’t think they have the right personnel to deal with that intensity every game. I see the Spartans struggling on the road this season. They are a feather in every team’s cap, and I believe they will be unable to match their opponents’ intensity every game, especially on the road. (And let me make this prediction now: Michigan State will lose to Indiana in Bloomington on February 16. And I will reprint that sentence after that happens.) Michigan State will win plenty of games this year—and plenty of them by a wide margin—but they won’t be able to win consistently enough on the road to top the Big Ten.
If Michigan finds another couple of players to complement Sims and Harris, they could well be able to win the Big Ten. But I don’t know who those players could be. A two-man team just isn’t enough to win consistently in the Big Ten.
5. Ohio State
- Not pictured: Inflated ego
The Buckeyes have a very strong core in Turner,Lighty, Diebler, and Buford. However, all of those players are on the perimeter, and Ohio State may have trouble finding a replacement forB.J. Mullens. Admittedly, Mullens was far from an all-star and his shoes won’t be too big to fill, but the Buckeyes added nobody and look to be thin in the paint. That shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance, though, and they should easily make the NCAA tournament, but their lack of size on the block may cost them a couple of games in the Big Ten. (Just wait a year, though, Buckeye faithful. A Big Ten title should be yours soon enough.)
6. Illinois
The Illini have a strong frontcourt with the two Mikes, Tisdale and Davis. Those two big men will create some match-up troubles for smaller teams in the Big Ten. (That works both ways, though, and the one of the big guys may have trouble defending smaller, quicker players.) And Bruce Weber added potential freshman-of-the-year D.J. Richardson, who scored 34 points in an inter-squad scrimmage. As we all know, 34 points can be very impressive to the Illini, so that scoring should help immensely.
But, the biggest issue for Illinois is replacing Chester Frazier. The point guard averaged 5-plus assists per game last year, but with him gone Illinois lacks a true point guard. Demetri McCamey may be the answer, but Frazier’s leadership will be missed. Even without him, though, the Illini should easily make the dance.
7. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is never the most talented team. And this year they have less talent than they have had in the past. But Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon will provide great leadership and production from the backcourt, and Jon Leuer should turn into a reliable scoring threat.
On paper, the Badgers don’t look very strong. But Bo Ryan wins. It’s that simple; Bo Ryan is a winner. He’s made the tournament every year at Wisconsin. He finds ways to win. I don’t see why this year will be any different, and the Badgers will do what they always do: Find a way to win enough games to make it to the tournament.
8. Penn State
Talor Battle is outstanding. He’s very, very good. He went 17-5-5 in his sophomore campaign, and should do even better this year.
But with Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley gone, it doesn’t look like the Nittany Lions will have enough talent to complement Battle. If a couple of players step up for Ed DeChellis, the Nittany Lions could earn the tournament berth they thought they deserved last season. Otherwise, it looks like another NIT appearance.
9. Indiana
I think Indiana will be a surprise team this year. They have not come close to fully recovering from the wake of Kelvin Sampson’s departure, and Tom Crean is still in the lengthy process of mending the program. But he added a nice recruiting class, spearheaded by forward Christian Watford and center Bawa Maniru. Devan Dumes, Tom Pritchard, and Verdell Jones III also provide nice returning talent.
The Hoosiers are still very young, and have a tough start to their year, including non-conference games against Mississippi, Maryland, Pitt, and Kentucky. Their early Big Ten schedule is also intimidating. Expect some early losses for the Hoosiers as the young team works to find its rhythm, but as the season progresses I think Indiana will earn some good wins (again, they will beat Michigan State at home in February—wait and see). I think the Hoosiers have an outside chance at the NIT.
10. Northwestern
A lot of people believe this will be the year that Northwestern finally makes the NCAA tournament. This could be the first time that such a buzz has surrounded Northwestern basketball.
It would be nice to see the Wildcats make their first trip to the NCAA tournament, and I hope they do. But I just don’t see it happening. They have a solid core inMichael Thompson, John Shurna, and Kevin Coble. But it looks like they just have too many gaps.
- Kevin Coble and the Wildcats have high hopes for the season, but will they be able to fulfill them?
Who will replace Craig Moore? Not only will they miss his outside shooting—which Shurna should be able to replace—but they will also miss his offensive leadership. And he was one of the main cogs in their impressive 1-3-1 defense last season. His defensive absence will be noticeable. Freshman Alex Marcotullio may be the answer, but it’s hard to see a true freshman coming in and becoming the needed defensive force.
I also see Northwestern having problems in the paint. Coble is their only threat on the block, but at a lanky 210 I don’t think he will be strong enough to do it himself. Another big guy needs to step up, but the Wildcats may not have the right player.
In conference, I just don’t see the Wildcats getting it done. They showed a crippling lack of consistency last season on their way to a 17-13 record. They had great wins at Michigan State and Purdue, but bad losses at Iowa and Stanford, and huge blowout losses at Wisconsin and Minnesota. (Toss in some tough non-conference games like Butler and Notre Dame, and the Wildcats may find themselves struggling to build a tournament resume.)
The difference between this year and last year? This year, Northwestern has much more respect, so it will be harder for them to sneak up on teams like Michigan State and Purdue. I don’t see them winning those types of games this year. Teams will be fully prepared for the Wildcats this season, reducing the impact of the 1-3-1, and Bill Carmody’s team won’t be able to put together enough wins to make a foray into the tournament. I see them hovering just below .500 this year. It will be another disappointing Selection Sunday for the Wildcats.
11. Iowa
The Hawkeyes are in rebuilding mode, and they simply do not have enough talent to compete in the deep Big Ten this year. They will win a few games, but don’t have the players to make a big splash in the standings.